Boise’s growth has been well-documented, but in the past year or so, a seemingly contradictory issue has popped up. School enrollment is declining to the point that some Treasure Valley school districts are closing perfectly operational schools. To figure out why, Idaho Statesman reporter Nick Rosenberger spent months digging up data.
The ‘Silver Tsunami’
The main cause of declining public school enrollment seems to be a population that’s aging much faster than average, botox be damned.
Between 2000 and 2021 the median age in the U.S. grew by about four years, which shows a gradually aging nation as adults have fewer children later in life. But a city like Eagle is leaps and bounds ahead of the national average. In the same timeframe, Eagle’s median age increased by 11.5 years to almost 47-years-old.
An aging population affects basically all aspects of our society. I wouldn’t say it’s necessarily bad … it strains different parts of society in different ways.
Nick Rosenberger, Reporter, Idaho Statesman
The Treasure Valley’s real estate is a perfect affordable landing strip for retired adults leaving more expensive cities. For younger people already living here, their options are to wait it out or leave.
The Enrollment Effect
The Treasure Valley’s largest public school districts have seen declining or stagnant enrollment during the 21st century, with West Ada School District being the largest and seeing its first decline after the COVID-19 pandemic began.
Across the valley, these declines create quite a phenomenon. Since 2020, Ada and Canyon counties have gained new residents and lost public school students at a rate of nearly 14 to one.
Housing costs are a huge factor in the skewing age demographics.
As an example, Rosenberger pointed to the neighboring Vallivue and Nampa School Districts. Nampa school officials have petitioned developers to build on the southern and eastern reaches of the city to shore up recent enrollment declines at Nampa School District. Instead, developers have favored building in the Vallivue School District on the northwestern side of the city.
While the Nampa School District shuts down four elementary schools this summer, on the other side of the district boundary the Vallivue School District is struggling to make enough space for students.
